天堂.受难记

Tuesday, September 18, 2007, 5:19 PM AEDST

Moment of weakness is behind Howard

By Peter van Onselen, Howard biographer

John Howard loves a political fight. In contrast to his family life where he is known as ''United Nations'' because he tries to broker compromise, in his political sphere Howard shows dogged determination and understands politics is essentially about power.

But last week he appeared unconvincing as he stared down his detractors inside the parliamentary Liberal Party. He lost his power.

Howard’s commitment to hand over the leadership risked undermining his authority at the top of the Liberal Party tree. A poor Newspoll this week would have again renewed leadership tensions, rendering the prime minister a lame duck leader.

However, the 55 to 45 two-party deficit, a significant contraction in the polls, has ended leadership speculation and Howard will surely get to fight one more election. That polling figures as bad as those mentioned above are considered good news for Howard is a sure sign how dire things have gotten for the government in recent months.

The self-confident spark that Prime Minister Howard long possessed faded last week, and with it the confidence of his team.

Parliamentary Liberal Party staffers started preparing CVs at record pace, readying for life after government. Marginal seat MPs made preparations for posters without the prime minister’s image.

After more than a decade at the head of government, Howard was looking tired.

The importance of the improved Newspoll result this week doesn’t rest in the figures themselves. It rests in the impact the good news (if you can call it that) will have on Howard personally. He will rally for one last fight, and it will only take one further narrowing in the polls to build momentum for a comeback. Some newspaper headlines have already suggested a comeback.

Howard has long had a steely resolve. It is his ability to fight back from adversity that has sustained the prime minister through the many lows in his 33-year political career.

But Howard is only human. Last week he looked more like the unsteady opposition leader who lost his party’s leadership in 1989 than the confident prime minister who has dominated cabinet for the last 11 years.

Don't expect to see that Howard again between now and polling day.